Oklahoma General Revenue Fund collections for May were 3.3% below the official state estimate according to the latest general revenue report released by the Oklahoma Office of Management and Enterprise Services yesterday. The report continues a trend of lackluster revenue reports for the state that indicate the state economy has been stagnant--something I've been saying since last September.
However, in the latest revenue report are some signs that Oklahoma's economy is starting to grow again. Each month I track my favorite indicator of state economic activity--seasonally-adjusted sales tax collections. To me, this metric is the best available because 1) the seasonal adjustments allow for month-to-month comparisons, 2) it is timely, and 3) sales taxes have less variation than other tax collections like income taxes. When I track the level of seasonally-adjusted sales tax collections I noticed that since peaking last April (at $164.8 million), they have trended downward until March (at $154.0 million). However, the last two months have shown steady increases with May's figure at $162.1 million. While still below the peak, this latest number tells me that the Oklahoma economy is picking up speed once more.
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